All the hullabaloo on the MiG 27 deal aside, it is heartening to note that fundamentals have remained intact in the Sri Lankan Security Establishment and that the bickering has been left to the bureaucrats. The latest success of the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) against three LTTE logistics vessels off
With the military success in the east, the external pressure would undoubtedly have had a compounding effect. A virtual absence of anti-aircraft fire in Eelam War IV provided the Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) with effective free reign in its battles in the east and on the aerial assault dealt to Sea Tiger bases in the first half of this year. Evidently, since the thwarting of a USD 3 million deal for weaponry to the LTTE in the
The alleged presence of parts for light aircraft among the cargo carried by the sunken vessels lends to confirmation of a further factor, which is the LTTE's intention to once again shift the theatre of war from the maritime domain in which it had been so successful in the past, to the skies. Its unprecedented aerial strikes against the Government in the first half of this year provided the first indication of this desire, which is understandable, given the heavy losses suffered by them in the east. Sea Tiger bases at strategic eastern locations such as Verugal and Vakarai were rendered inoperable by the SLAF in January 2007, with this success consolidated on with the capture of the east. Such bases which were crucial to the LTTE in the past in operations such as the assault on the SLN's Dakshina Naval Base in
Now that the reign of impunity is an image of the past, a consolidated GOSL military effort in the north is only a matter of time. For eradicating the LTTE, this is certainly a necessity. What must now be borne in mind is that application of a similar logic with regard to the supply chain must also be applied to LTTE recruits. Specifically, in order for the supply of new recruits to the LTTE to be stemmed, a consorted effort to win over the hearts and minds of the northern Tamils is an absolute must. A tree cannot be cut at its branches and not be expected to grow back. As with the material supplies, the tree of recruits must also be eradicated at its roots. Thus what needs to be noted is that offering soft drinks to those who have lost loved ones in collateral damage and suffered untold hardship as a result of the war (a GOSL official was captured on video in the east, bragging about soft drink hand outs) is as much good as providing a dead man with a bottle of arrack. Greater coordination between military/security and social policy is therefore a hard requirement. In such a case, heavy blunders such as the 'repatriation' of Tamils, who have "no business to be in
In the meantime, it must be borne in mind that terrorism is a tactic best utilised in asymmetric conditions. Attacks on economic and iconic installations should thus be expected, as from a depleted position, it would perhaps be the LTTE's best option. However, given the dismal human rights record of the GOSL at present, a racial backlash similar to 1983 would perhaps also consolidate a case for genocide and strengthen the cases for refugees such as the fasting Sri Lankans in Britain and the 72 'boat people' presently encamped in
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Combatting a Depleted Enemy: Getting the Priorities Right
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Sentence Him to Hospital!
Night club brawls and ministers' sons are now synonymous with typical Colombo-speak. Now we have it again...... the noted son of a notorious politico assaults man at Colombo nightclub. Yawn...... where's my coffee today?
This morning's Sunday Times alleges that a pistol was used to assault the victim on the head. The latest incident is an uncanny reminder of a similar episode of assault that took place outside yet another Colombo nightclub perhaps five years ago, in which two innocent by-standers were assaulted by the same villain and his goons in similar fashion... the reason: the victims were struck by an opening door of the assailants' BMW.... yes, the victims were struck and not the other way round. Tsk, tsk, tsk....
Oh well, at least he had the common decency to admit himself to hospital, before he was sentenced there by a court. What is baffling is the light of day that these people are given by the State. Critics of MR will be quick to pounce - and that they rightfully should... why tolerate this rubbish? Let us see how far this investigation proceeds. Will he be treated like the rest of us? Then again, let's think back a few years... CBK was no better, neither was the Leader of the Greens. A lot of hot air, yes... but we didn't see much done during their times. 'Reprimand' is just a word and that's apparently the way it is viewed by the perpetrating parties. How about applying the rule of law? Or would that be un-Sri Lankan?
The system is corrupt. Political leaders depend on even the most unscrupulous (not that all leaders are the cleanest players around) for the survival of their wafer-thin majorities..... the merits of course, of the PR system and fragmentation of the House, from the influx of parties to the mainstream, since the Government of 1978. The proposed electoral amendments will be interesting to see.... if ever implemented, that is.
In the meantime, I wonder if the nurses have been up to the task. Who else needs hospitalisation, I wonder? Tsk, to hell with that, my coffee's getting cold.
This morning's Sunday Times alleges that a pistol was used to assault the victim on the head. The latest incident is an uncanny reminder of a similar episode of assault that took place outside yet another Colombo nightclub perhaps five years ago, in which two innocent by-standers were assaulted by the same villain and his goons in similar fashion... the reason: the victims were struck by an opening door of the assailants' BMW.... yes, the victims were struck and not the other way round. Tsk, tsk, tsk....
Oh well, at least he had the common decency to admit himself to hospital, before he was sentenced there by a court. What is baffling is the light of day that these people are given by the State. Critics of MR will be quick to pounce - and that they rightfully should... why tolerate this rubbish? Let us see how far this investigation proceeds. Will he be treated like the rest of us? Then again, let's think back a few years... CBK was no better, neither was the Leader of the Greens. A lot of hot air, yes... but we didn't see much done during their times. 'Reprimand' is just a word and that's apparently the way it is viewed by the perpetrating parties. How about applying the rule of law? Or would that be un-Sri Lankan?
The system is corrupt. Political leaders depend on even the most unscrupulous (not that all leaders are the cleanest players around) for the survival of their wafer-thin majorities..... the merits of course, of the PR system and fragmentation of the House, from the influx of parties to the mainstream, since the Government of 1978. The proposed electoral amendments will be interesting to see.... if ever implemented, that is.
In the meantime, I wonder if the nurses have been up to the task. Who else needs hospitalisation, I wonder? Tsk, to hell with that, my coffee's getting cold.
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
From Trumpets to Dust: Confronting the Forgotten Challenges of the East
The trumpets have faded and the dust has settled on the battlefields of the east. It is now time for contemplation, a time for serious reflection on issues of real national interest. For all the hype and celebrations on its re-capture, it remains to be seen what administrative mechanisms will be installed for governance of the region. This is not the first time that power has been devolved to the province.
It must be recalled that the administration of Annamalai Vardaraja Perumal from the end of 1988 to 1990 was a failure, perhaps from day one. At the time, the newly elected President Premadasa seemed intent to go it alone. He was confident of his ability to side-track Perumal's EPRLF, through negotiations with the LTTE. The late President's intent was the expeditious withdrawal of Indian troops from Sri Lanka. Negotiations with the Tigers failed and the rest is documented history but the overall attitude of Colombo towards the Perumal administration must once again be recalled at this crucial juncture for the east, if a repetition of history is to be averted. Premadasa's intent to sidestep his Chief Minister in the East rendered the Provincial Council a dud administration, effectively a body on paper.
If Sri Lanka is to be serious on exploring any realistic power-sharing arrangements, Colombo must demonstrate through its own actions, that it is willing to share power with the periphery and thus devolve some real power to these extended arms of government. The Karuna element in present day politics will make it crucial that this sharing mechanism is correctly installed through an effective framework for representative governance. In other words, any abandoning of renegade cadres from the east will result in a Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) in the region, this time being waged by breakaway LTTE elements as opposed to the Tigers themselves. Further, the involvement of these splinter groups (internecine violence being a major point of contention), will be crucial in any effort to maintain effective control of the captured territory. Perhaps, in this regard, the latest move to absorb Tamils into the national Police Force for deployment within this area, is a sensible option and as has been recently highlighted in sections of the media, may well present cadres from the Karuna faction with equal opportunity to apply (Daily Mirror, July 31, 2007). Called correct by the Government, as reported in recent media reports (Ibid), the introduction of Tamil speaking police personnel to Tamil speaking areas will not only improve tolerance of the Sri Lanka Police in the region, but will also tremendously improve public relations with not just the police force, but also Colombo. This aspect has been essential and although overdue, the steps taken must be welcomed. However close attention must also be paid to the demographics of the region to be governed, with special attention being paid to eastern Muslims. Their lack of representation at peace talks in the past must be rectified with this fresh opportunity, if lessons of the past are to be learnt from and the birth pangs for further separatist thought are to be prevented. Accordingly, a demographically representative structure must be introduced for any governing body that is to be set up in the region. Needless to say, power-sharing success in the east, if achieved, will only strengthen Colombo's case for success of a similar move for the north, which in effect, will weaken the secessionist claim for Eelam.
In this regard, it would perhaps be in the present interest to work within the parameters of the northeast de-merger for a stipulated initial period and as was suggested under the Parthasarathy proposals of the 1980s, to necessitate a referendum within a further stipulated time-frame, to determine future recourse. This time however, Colombo should execute such proposals and refrain from its trademark dilatory tactics.
It is now up to President Rajapaksa to prove his metal, abandon his nationalist rhetoric and get to work with his government on a responsible and effective structure of governance for the east. Harping on 'historic' victories will surely massage a few egos but that apart, will do little good.
It must be recalled that the administration of Annamalai Vardaraja Perumal from the end of 1988 to 1990 was a failure, perhaps from day one. At the time, the newly elected President Premadasa seemed intent to go it alone. He was confident of his ability to side-track Perumal's EPRLF, through negotiations with the LTTE. The late President's intent was the expeditious withdrawal of Indian troops from Sri Lanka. Negotiations with the Tigers failed and the rest is documented history but the overall attitude of Colombo towards the Perumal administration must once again be recalled at this crucial juncture for the east, if a repetition of history is to be averted. Premadasa's intent to sidestep his Chief Minister in the East rendered the Provincial Council a dud administration, effectively a body on paper.
If Sri Lanka is to be serious on exploring any realistic power-sharing arrangements, Colombo must demonstrate through its own actions, that it is willing to share power with the periphery and thus devolve some real power to these extended arms of government. The Karuna element in present day politics will make it crucial that this sharing mechanism is correctly installed through an effective framework for representative governance. In other words, any abandoning of renegade cadres from the east will result in a Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) in the region, this time being waged by breakaway LTTE elements as opposed to the Tigers themselves. Further, the involvement of these splinter groups (internecine violence being a major point of contention), will be crucial in any effort to maintain effective control of the captured territory. Perhaps, in this regard, the latest move to absorb Tamils into the national Police Force for deployment within this area, is a sensible option and as has been recently highlighted in sections of the media, may well present cadres from the Karuna faction with equal opportunity to apply (Daily Mirror, July 31, 2007). Called correct by the Government, as reported in recent media reports (Ibid), the introduction of Tamil speaking police personnel to Tamil speaking areas will not only improve tolerance of the Sri Lanka Police in the region, but will also tremendously improve public relations with not just the police force, but also Colombo. This aspect has been essential and although overdue, the steps taken must be welcomed. However close attention must also be paid to the demographics of the region to be governed, with special attention being paid to eastern Muslims. Their lack of representation at peace talks in the past must be rectified with this fresh opportunity, if lessons of the past are to be learnt from and the birth pangs for further separatist thought are to be prevented. Accordingly, a demographically representative structure must be introduced for any governing body that is to be set up in the region. Needless to say, power-sharing success in the east, if achieved, will only strengthen Colombo's case for success of a similar move for the north, which in effect, will weaken the secessionist claim for Eelam.
In this regard, it would perhaps be in the present interest to work within the parameters of the northeast de-merger for a stipulated initial period and as was suggested under the Parthasarathy proposals of the 1980s, to necessitate a referendum within a further stipulated time-frame, to determine future recourse. This time however, Colombo should execute such proposals and refrain from its trademark dilatory tactics.
It is now up to President Rajapaksa to prove his metal, abandon his nationalist rhetoric and get to work with his government on a responsible and effective structure of governance for the east. Harping on 'historic' victories will surely massage a few egos but that apart, will do little good.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Response to Dr. Ellyn Shander, MD
The following is a response posted by the author of Dheshapalana to a speech delivered by Dr. Ellyn Shander, MD, in support of Tamil Eelam, at a Peace Rally at Capitol Hill, Washington DC, on July 23, 2007. The full text of the speech is available on transCurrents.
Dear Dr. Shander,
The overall manner in which the Government of Sri Lanka has conducted its war is deplorable indeed. It should be the dream of every man, woman or child, regardless of race, class, caste or creed to live in peace and harmony, with the right to life, access to education, health-care, shelter, food and water. This should be the right of the Tamils and the Singhalese alike. As enshrined in the Declaration of 1948, it should be the right of every human being. It is bad enough to take a life. For a government to take the lives of its own innocent citizens, whether intended or collateral, is far worse. There has been little understanding as to the social impact of GOSL defence and security policy, especially under the present regime. There seems very little differentiation between combatants and non-combatants. An all-encompassing policy of capacity-building for northerners is completely lacking from Colombo’s present agenda. The recent ‘repatriation’ of northern Tamils from Colombo is testimony to the fact. It is regrettable that the island is now compared to Darfur. There is a lot that can be criticised and a lot that can be changed with regard to Colombo’s policies on the Tamil question. Indeed, as has been observed by others before, the LTTE is a creation of Colombo’s chauvinism of the past, not a catalyst for it.
You capture the human perspective of the situation with feeling and rigour. You fail however, to mention the use of human shields which have often impelled Government forces towards the inflicting of collateral damage. You give little consideration or credit, for instance, to the account of Hoole, Somasundaram, Sritharan and Thiranagama in ‘The Broken Palmyrah.’ The authors have described how soft targets such as the Jaffna hospital, were used as cover by the LTTE when attacking Indian troops. The natural consequence was heavy collateral damage at the hands of the latter. You are perhaps unaware of the circumstances surrounding the death of Thiranagama, a Tamil herself. The same tactics as previously described, are often used by the LTTE against the GOSL. Recent reports have emerged of heavy LTTE artillery fire from the vicinity of the Madu Church. Your speech fails to consider such aspects.
I have no doubt that your dream also harbours hope for the day when parents can rest assured that their children will not be conscripted and deployed on the battlefields at short notice. I share your dream: Colombo must do everything in its power to show the people that it is capable of safeguarding its own citizens. Time has proven the irrationality of the present unitary structure of the state. A devolved system of power must be adopted without further ado. In its wake, the leaders of the north must show willingness to govern their people in an able and humane manner. The efficiency of northern leaders is now beyond doubt. You may however be unaware of the means adopted. If the tactics of coercion adopted by the LTTE’s representatives abroad, in order to secure funding for their war effort is any indication of what is to come, I regret to note that I see little hope.
I remain doubtless that it is also your dream that all Tamil people, whether in Sri Lanka or abroad, will see the day when they can live with no fear of threat and intimidation from LTTE agents attempting to extract blood money for the Eelamist campaign. Allow me a reference to a history that you may perhaps be unaware of: the events of the 1980s and how group after rival rebel group of fellow Tamil brethren were systematically eradicated, in what amounted to little less than meaningless, mass sanguinary violence. At such a time, Dr. Shander, I wonder, did the Tamil people ask: What is this madness? I have little doubt.
International pressure must thus be exerted not only against Colombo, but also against the LTTE to stop holding its respective people to ransom. What is this madness? Let us call a spade a spade!
Thursday, July 12, 2007
SAVE RIZANA NAZIK: Say No to Capital Punishment
Murder is the cardinal sin. It is condemned by civil society the world over. Regimes committing genocide are universally condemned. Those committing murder, even if to avenge the death of another, are subject to the same societal and legal condemnation. To take a life is wrong and no one can give us this power.... but does this situation change if a court is to sentence to death? Is it anymore just? What if the convict is innocent? Will the court apologise at the grave?
The case of 19 year-old Sri Lankan housemaid Rizana Nasik hangs in the balance, while the matter rests with the powers that be. The teenager, convicted of infanticide in Saudi Arabia, hails from an impoverished family in war-torn Muttur. Having arrived in Saudi Arabia on May 4, 2005, she commenced working for a family 390km west of Riyadh. Within weeks, the girl was entrusted to care for her' employers' 4 month old infant. Having no prior experience, disaster struck when bottle-feeding her charge. Rizana's panicked cries for help and efforts at soothing the baby were in vain - the infant choked to death.
Rizana, aged 17 at the time, was tried in court under Sharia Law, sans defence representation. The court dismissed the claim that she was a minor on grounds of conflicting evidence of her date of birth - her passport provided the year of birth as 1982. The girl's family has claimed her age was falsified so as to secure employment for the girl. Pleas for forgiveness directed at the parents of the deceased infant have so far been futile. Having been convicted, Rizana remains on death row - her fate to be determined by beheading, within weeks.
The GOSL has arranged for the parents of the girl to travel to Saudi Arabia, accompanied by the SL Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, in efforts directed towards a last minute plea. Let us hope that clemency is granted and that humanity prevails.
Please sign the Petition Urging Clemency for Rizana, from HRH King Abdullah. Time is scarce.... let us now lend our collective voices to her cause: CLICK HERE TO SIGN.
Read full story on Asian Tribune.
The case of 19 year-old Sri Lankan housemaid Rizana Nasik hangs in the balance, while the matter rests with the powers that be. The teenager, convicted of infanticide in Saudi Arabia, hails from an impoverished family in war-torn Muttur. Having arrived in Saudi Arabia on May 4, 2005, she commenced working for a family 390km west of Riyadh. Within weeks, the girl was entrusted to care for her' employers' 4 month old infant. Having no prior experience, disaster struck when bottle-feeding her charge. Rizana's panicked cries for help and efforts at soothing the baby were in vain - the infant choked to death.
Rizana, aged 17 at the time, was tried in court under Sharia Law, sans defence representation. The court dismissed the claim that she was a minor on grounds of conflicting evidence of her date of birth - her passport provided the year of birth as 1982. The girl's family has claimed her age was falsified so as to secure employment for the girl. Pleas for forgiveness directed at the parents of the deceased infant have so far been futile. Having been convicted, Rizana remains on death row - her fate to be determined by beheading, within weeks.
The GOSL has arranged for the parents of the girl to travel to Saudi Arabia, accompanied by the SL Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, in efforts directed towards a last minute plea. Let us hope that clemency is granted and that humanity prevails.
Please sign the Petition Urging Clemency for Rizana, from HRH King Abdullah. Time is scarce.... let us now lend our collective voices to her cause: CLICK HERE TO SIGN.
Read full story on Asian Tribune.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Engaging the Blogosphere: Raped or a Harvest Reaped?
I recall sitting in a tutorial room over two years ago and engaging in a passionate debate with my peers, on the future of blogging in the changing world of media. My argument was that it was the future - or at least a substantial part of it. I cited Indymedia. My peers insisted that blogs were nothing but personalised rants and self-contained writings, akin to public journals.
I knew that the latter was true, as I know those who maintain blogs and do precisely that, although admittedly, at least one of those can also claim credit, albeit intermittently, for some commendable prose. The fact though, was that despite being true, this was only half the story. There are many more, I argued, who blog on matters of public interest. News flashes, opinion, political commentary - I pressed on - are all part of a blogger's work, or could be, as has been repeatedly demonstrated. Then the pressing issue: will blogs take over the mainstream media? Or will the latter consume the former?
After reading Cerno's blog, the tutorial debate from the past inevitably sprang back to memory, for the relevance of it to the present Sri Lankan context, I feel, cannot be understated. Surely, the new media revolution is upon us?
Since the introduction of Kottu to the SL blogosphere by Indi Samarajiva and company, I have watched (or read is perhaps more appropriate) fascinated, as the blogging revolution unraveled with gusto upon Sri Lankan society. Perhaps the recent article in the Sunday Times spurred more debate but it is evident that mainstream scribes have now started to look towards blogs for constructive journalism, with the latest Lakbima events (cited on Cerno's blog) being a case in point.
For the moment, the sentiment among bloggers seems to be that the mainstream has unmercifully raped the blogosphere. Admittedly, sections of the mainstream have a lot to learn in terms of adaptability to the unfolding information revolution but more so, (once again, judging from Cerno's blog), a bit of learning to do on appropriate citation.
But I have digressed. Back to my tutorial argument of yesteryear. The Lakbima case could indeed be acknowledgment that blogging is the future - or rather - a part of it in the making. Hail the information age and the new media revolution. Stay with it or go without. Could this be a new beginning? If at all, as has been acknowledged by the newspaper itself in the comments section of Cerno's post, the SL blogosphere is not without its share of important things to say and not least in importance, is home to some writing of the highest quality, that I have been fortunate enough to read.
With time, perhaps more of the mainstream will tap into the contents of the SL blogosphere and with more time, will perhaps learn that appropriate citation is all in a day's ethics. (Cerno elaborates further). The purpose is not to disparage the mainstream but to encourage or more so to invite these scribes to our sites..... credit your choice of writers here and I'm sure we will be happy to share.
Co-exist and collaborate..... Let the information revolution unfold.
I knew that the latter was true, as I know those who maintain blogs and do precisely that, although admittedly, at least one of those can also claim credit, albeit intermittently, for some commendable prose. The fact though, was that despite being true, this was only half the story. There are many more, I argued, who blog on matters of public interest. News flashes, opinion, political commentary - I pressed on - are all part of a blogger's work, or could be, as has been repeatedly demonstrated. Then the pressing issue: will blogs take over the mainstream media? Or will the latter consume the former?
After reading Cerno's blog, the tutorial debate from the past inevitably sprang back to memory, for the relevance of it to the present Sri Lankan context, I feel, cannot be understated. Surely, the new media revolution is upon us?
Since the introduction of Kottu to the SL blogosphere by Indi Samarajiva and company, I have watched (or read is perhaps more appropriate) fascinated, as the blogging revolution unraveled with gusto upon Sri Lankan society. Perhaps the recent article in the Sunday Times spurred more debate but it is evident that mainstream scribes have now started to look towards blogs for constructive journalism, with the latest Lakbima events (cited on Cerno's blog) being a case in point.
For the moment, the sentiment among bloggers seems to be that the mainstream has unmercifully raped the blogosphere. Admittedly, sections of the mainstream have a lot to learn in terms of adaptability to the unfolding information revolution but more so, (once again, judging from Cerno's blog), a bit of learning to do on appropriate citation.
But I have digressed. Back to my tutorial argument of yesteryear. The Lakbima case could indeed be acknowledgment that blogging is the future - or rather - a part of it in the making. Hail the information age and the new media revolution. Stay with it or go without. Could this be a new beginning? If at all, as has been acknowledged by the newspaper itself in the comments section of Cerno's post, the SL blogosphere is not without its share of important things to say and not least in importance, is home to some writing of the highest quality, that I have been fortunate enough to read.
With time, perhaps more of the mainstream will tap into the contents of the SL blogosphere and with more time, will perhaps learn that appropriate citation is all in a day's ethics. (Cerno elaborates further). The purpose is not to disparage the mainstream but to encourage or more so to invite these scribes to our sites..... credit your choice of writers here and I'm sure we will be happy to share.
Co-exist and collaborate..... Let the information revolution unfold.
Libel, Female Degradation & the SL Blogosphere
I was browsing Kottu.org, when I spotted a link to a blog purported to be an advertisement for a brothel run by a popular Sri Lankan actress. To the less than careful observer, the language used on the site alone would tell the obvious tale that the blog is merely a set-up by some frustrated mind with way too much time on his hands.
I will refrain from blogging at length about this and contributing to the unworthy sensationalism that its depraved author so craves, excepting to make an appeal to Indi & co. who run Kottu. While commending you on the fantastic outlet for unrestricted views, might I suggest a few exceptions on Kottu, ie. restrictions on libelous content as that which appears on the fore-mentioned (and a link for which is featured on the Kottu side bar), that degrade women and promote frustrated, reactionary cultural mindsets that are still sadly reminiscent of swaths of our 21st century society. To the twisted author: shame on you!
I will refrain from blogging at length about this and contributing to the unworthy sensationalism that its depraved author so craves, excepting to make an appeal to Indi & co. who run Kottu. While commending you on the fantastic outlet for unrestricted views, might I suggest a few exceptions on Kottu, ie. restrictions on libelous content as that which appears on the fore-mentioned (and a link for which is featured on the Kottu side bar), that degrade women and promote frustrated, reactionary cultural mindsets that are still sadly reminiscent of swaths of our 21st century society. To the twisted author: shame on you!
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
An Intelligence War: Have What it Takes?
Dragons of Eden carried a very interesting post a couple of months ago, titled "Suit Up or Shut Up: Shooting Down the LTTE Air Force." An excellent post indeed, considering that it provides an informed perspective on aircraft and airborne combat, in comparison to a layman's grasp on these matters such as that of myself. I stumbled on this post after reading "A Question" on Manshark's Random Rants - a hilarious, well written post. Of course, my own post today is behind the times but I have felt a need to add to the forementioned thought provoking posts, opting for late than never.
For sometime, there has been a pressing need for the Sri Lankan Defence Establishment to address the nature of the threat. The present outfit headed by Gotabhaya Rajapaksa has proven the ground combat capabilities of the Sri Lankan forces beyond much doubt with the sweeping military success in the east. Here, the emphasis has clearly been on military combat, with due territorial gains. Admittedly, in the broader sense of the present context, this is a neccessary evil. Kudos to the military.
Now let me focus on the nature of the threat. The LTTE is not only a non-state outfit with proven guerrilla combat capabilities with success against both the Sri Lankan and superior Indian military, but is also perhaps the world's best organised outfit in terms of procurement. The group has a fleet of blue water merchant vessels numbering at least eleven, dubbed the K.P. Wing, which over the years, have been responsible for shipments of not only arms and ammunition but also spare parts and as is now plainly obvious, unassembled light aircraft. Recent investigations have unearthed the alarmingly successful fundraising acitivities of the LTTE abroad, including credit card scams in the United Kingdom, Singapore and Thailand. The group's de-facto naval wing the Sea Tigers, have been instrumental in providing cover for LTTE logistics boat movements, mainly in northeastern and sometimes in northwestern Sri Lankan waters. Evidently, while essential gains were being made by Sri Lankan ground troops, the Tigers have continued to re-arm and evolve over the years, from a modest band of guerrillas, to a group with the world's first and most effective de-facto naval wing and now a modest but dangerous air wing.
Clearly, the threat is transnational and multi-dimensional. So what should be done at home, to counter the threat? As I have commented before, I see military maneuvers as being essential. However, there must be recognition within the Sri Lankan Defence Establishment that this war is as much an Intelligence War as it is a military one.
To address my core issue: could the Katunayaka airstrikes have been averted? Should the Government have sent its aircraft into the skies earlier? The latter question is answered better on Dragons of Eden than I can manage myself so I have nothing to add here. I'll deal with the former and a lead question: how could the GOSL have possibly known of this new threat?
It was the first time that the LTTE used areal bombardment as a tactic but the threat is not new. If you were a fan of playing around on Google Earth, you would have been able to identify two LTTE airstrips in and around the Iranamadu region. The first, situated 2.6 km east of the Iranamadu tank, measures approximately 1,250 m in length, while the second, 1.7 km northeast of the Iranamadu tank, has a length of approximately 372 m. Kaiser Kobayashi, the author of Dragons of Eden would perhaps confirm that these are sufficient lengths for light aircraft take off and landing.
Did the GOSL know what aircraft the LTTE possessed? They should have. A Sri Lankan defence correspondant has reported that a SLAF Searcher UAV conducting a reconneissance flight over LTTE territory in the Iranamadu region, detected a light aircraft on the airstrip on both January 12 and 13, 2005. Less than a month later, on February 03, an SLAF UAV obtained thermal images of a second aircraft making a night landing on the airstrip. This data was corroborated with US intelligence to positively identify the aircraft as a Czech-built Zlin Z143. The aircraft is believed to have an approximate range of 1,335 km, making Colombo readily accessible, on an island with a total coastline of 1,340 km.
It should also have been known to the defence establishment that a low flying light aircraft would be very difficult to detect on radar, unless the radars were well positioned and in the case of the first attack, operational. If the images taken from cameras on board the SLAF's UAV on February 03, 2005 provided anything to go by, indications were that the LTTE pilots were undergoing flight training at night. Days later, on February 19, 2005, Sri Lanka Customs siezed unassembled parts of a remote controled aircraft being smuggled into the island through the international airport, purportedly as tsunami aid. Images of the latter were released through the mainstream media. Clearly, the threat was building.
Shanaka Jayasekara warned as early as March 2005 of six operational possibilities for which the LTTE might use its air wing: political recognition, UAV operations, logistics runs, suicide missions, hijack sanctuary and a 'dirty war'. While none of these scenarios have still been put to effective known use, Jayasekara's analysis should have been sufficient to alert the authorities to the nature of the air threat.
All the fuss after the attacks indicates that the Government now knows what to do, or at least says that it knows what to do, in response to the LTTE air threat. If so, this is a classic case of closing the gate after the horse has bolted. What of the intelligence gathering and analysis thereof, referred to above?
This war is also an Intelligence War.... and it cannot be waged unless intelligence is gathered, analysed, and possessed.............. so what is the level of intelligence of the Defence Sec?? Can we expect to see more proactive strategising and policy-formulation from the man at the top?
For sometime, there has been a pressing need for the Sri Lankan Defence Establishment to address the nature of the threat. The present outfit headed by Gotabhaya Rajapaksa has proven the ground combat capabilities of the Sri Lankan forces beyond much doubt with the sweeping military success in the east. Here, the emphasis has clearly been on military combat, with due territorial gains. Admittedly, in the broader sense of the present context, this is a neccessary evil. Kudos to the military.
Now let me focus on the nature of the threat. The LTTE is not only a non-state outfit with proven guerrilla combat capabilities with success against both the Sri Lankan and superior Indian military, but is also perhaps the world's best organised outfit in terms of procurement. The group has a fleet of blue water merchant vessels numbering at least eleven, dubbed the K.P. Wing, which over the years, have been responsible for shipments of not only arms and ammunition but also spare parts and as is now plainly obvious, unassembled light aircraft. Recent investigations have unearthed the alarmingly successful fundraising acitivities of the LTTE abroad, including credit card scams in the United Kingdom, Singapore and Thailand. The group's de-facto naval wing the Sea Tigers, have been instrumental in providing cover for LTTE logistics boat movements, mainly in northeastern and sometimes in northwestern Sri Lankan waters. Evidently, while essential gains were being made by Sri Lankan ground troops, the Tigers have continued to re-arm and evolve over the years, from a modest band of guerrillas, to a group with the world's first and most effective de-facto naval wing and now a modest but dangerous air wing.
Clearly, the threat is transnational and multi-dimensional. So what should be done at home, to counter the threat? As I have commented before, I see military maneuvers as being essential. However, there must be recognition within the Sri Lankan Defence Establishment that this war is as much an Intelligence War as it is a military one.
To address my core issue: could the Katunayaka airstrikes have been averted? Should the Government have sent its aircraft into the skies earlier? The latter question is answered better on Dragons of Eden than I can manage myself so I have nothing to add here. I'll deal with the former and a lead question: how could the GOSL have possibly known of this new threat?
It was the first time that the LTTE used areal bombardment as a tactic but the threat is not new. If you were a fan of playing around on Google Earth, you would have been able to identify two LTTE airstrips in and around the Iranamadu region. The first, situated 2.6 km east of the Iranamadu tank, measures approximately 1,250 m in length, while the second, 1.7 km northeast of the Iranamadu tank, has a length of approximately 372 m. Kaiser Kobayashi, the author of Dragons of Eden would perhaps confirm that these are sufficient lengths for light aircraft take off and landing.
Did the GOSL know what aircraft the LTTE possessed? They should have. A Sri Lankan defence correspondant has reported that a SLAF Searcher UAV conducting a reconneissance flight over LTTE territory in the Iranamadu region, detected a light aircraft on the airstrip on both January 12 and 13, 2005. Less than a month later, on February 03, an SLAF UAV obtained thermal images of a second aircraft making a night landing on the airstrip. This data was corroborated with US intelligence to positively identify the aircraft as a Czech-built Zlin Z143. The aircraft is believed to have an approximate range of 1,335 km, making Colombo readily accessible, on an island with a total coastline of 1,340 km.
It should also have been known to the defence establishment that a low flying light aircraft would be very difficult to detect on radar, unless the radars were well positioned and in the case of the first attack, operational. If the images taken from cameras on board the SLAF's UAV on February 03, 2005 provided anything to go by, indications were that the LTTE pilots were undergoing flight training at night. Days later, on February 19, 2005, Sri Lanka Customs siezed unassembled parts of a remote controled aircraft being smuggled into the island through the international airport, purportedly as tsunami aid. Images of the latter were released through the mainstream media. Clearly, the threat was building.
Shanaka Jayasekara warned as early as March 2005 of six operational possibilities for which the LTTE might use its air wing: political recognition, UAV operations, logistics runs, suicide missions, hijack sanctuary and a 'dirty war'. While none of these scenarios have still been put to effective known use, Jayasekara's analysis should have been sufficient to alert the authorities to the nature of the air threat.
All the fuss after the attacks indicates that the Government now knows what to do, or at least says that it knows what to do, in response to the LTTE air threat. If so, this is a classic case of closing the gate after the horse has bolted. What of the intelligence gathering and analysis thereof, referred to above?
This war is also an Intelligence War.... and it cannot be waged unless intelligence is gathered, analysed, and possessed.............. so what is the level of intelligence of the Defence Sec?? Can we expect to see more proactive strategising and policy-formulation from the man at the top?
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